2; Table 1). Given the position of the subducted topography with depth, these features might also affect the downdip earthquake rupture behavior as well, as suggested by Marcaillou et al. (2015). Seismol. We utilized the focal mechanisms to identify events that were most likely located on the subduction megathrust (Figs. The ~200 km gap between the 2010 and 2015 ruptures (Figure 1 ) likely resulted from a combination of the 2010 slip distribution, rigidity of both . Res. Soc. Cummins, P. R. & Kaneda, Y. In general, island-arc megathrusts that host great earthquakes tend to be more productive than continental arcs. With ongoing subduction, strain energy accumulates in the locked area and is typically released by earthquakes3. Atmos. In many regions, current instrumentation is deficient to achieve robust tsunami and seismic warning systems, and efforts to enhance seismic and geodetic networks are needed. Postseismic deformation is ongoing, as is the risk of another . However, even given the general constraint of the plate-boundary slip budget, the diversity of recent large earthquakes on megathrusts has presented surprises in terms of event location, size, and hazard for multiple plate boundaries. As mentioned in the previous section, thick sediment subduction and smooth plates have been linked with the occurrence of great earthquakes. Thick and strong sediments in the 2004 Sumatra earthquake rupture zone may have allowed very shallow rupture for that event, in contrast to the deeper slip of the 2005 Nias earthquake (Geersen et al., 2013). J. Geophys. International Conference for High Performance Computing, Networking, Storage and Analysis 2021 63:163:14 (ACM, 2021). doi: https://doi.org/10.1130/GES01608.1. Rikitake, T. Recurrence of great earthquakes at subduction zones. Slip from the 2006 earthquake, as well as from a large 1963 compressional earthquake in the trench slope region, led to increased static stress on optimally oriented normal faults in the region of the 2007 event (Raeesi and Atakan, 2009). Tsunami earthquakes, as well as a few other shallow events, were found to have scaled durations (to an equivalent Mw = 6.0 reference) of between 8 and 19 s, i.e., significantly larger than the average of the rest of the events in their study (5.6 1.5 s). Bull. Audet and Schwartz (2013) identified similar correlations among high Vp/Vs, higher fluid pressures, and slow slip in the southeastern Nicoya segment of the Costa Rica subduction zone. Seismic moment is predominantly associated with the likely megathrust events. (2012) found evidence for small-magnitude earthquake clusters in areas of subducted seamounts along the Cascadia subduction zone. Earth Planet. Kozdon, J. E. & Dunham, E. M. Rupture to the trench: dynamic rupture simulations of the 11 March 2011 Tohoku earthquake. Focal mechanisms of great earthquakes between 1979 and 2016 are from the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) catalog. (2016c) also demonstrated that tsunami earthquakes have low moment-scaled radiated energy compared to other subduction zone earthquakes. Numerous hazards are associated with the remarkable size of M 8 events. This style of triggering is particularly troublesome, because the secondary underthrusting events in the sequence occurred within tens of seconds, hampering the ability to quickly assess the tsunami potential. These models suggest different seismic behavior in areas of subducting topography, where these features could act as either regions of high slip, or regions that arrest slip during a megathrust earthquake. Heterogeneous frictional properties of the megathrust and dynamic interactions control how any given region behaves, including the possibility that some regions of stable sliding might transition to stick-slip failure during high-strain-rate loading. Open Access This observation led to the idea that thick subducted sediment packages act to smooth the plate-boundary zone, resulting in uniform seismic coupling that allows earthquakes to rupture unimpeded for large distances on the megathrust (e.g., Ruff, 1989). In many cases, these LFEs occur as swarms that comprise much of the seismic nonvolcanic tremor observed in subduction zone settings (e.g., Ide et al., 2007b). 13). Instead of producing large earthquakes, several of these regions exhibit high levels of creep (low seismic coupling), which are a proposed consequence of seamount deformation of the upper-plate model (Wang and Bilek, 2014). Geosci.) Nat. In their paper published in the . 97, S192S207 (2007). Stress drop estimates for global compilations of shallow subduction zone earthquakes from Ye et al. Geophys. Sallars, V. & Ranero, C. R. Upper-plate rigidity determines depth-varying rupture behaviour of megathrust earthquakes. Inter. (a) \(\tau /{\sigma }_{{{{\rm{n}}}}}^{\prime}\) distribution plotted with a colormap covering the whole range of variation of \(\tau /{\sigma }_{{{{\rm{n}}}}}^{\prime}\). Res. Thrust faulting distribution and Mw-frequency statistics for the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone from the 19762016 Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) catalog. Saito, T., Baba, T., Inazu, D., Takemura, S. & Fukuyama, E. Synthesizing sea surface height change including seismic waves and tsunami using a dynamic rupture scenario of anticipated Nankai trough earthquakes. Yang, H., Yao, S., He, B. Curray, J. R. Sediment volume and mass beneath the Bay of Bengal. The 3-year probability of successive M8 + earthquakes for the Nankai megathrust was higher than that of the global average (10% . . In Proc. Bilek, S. L. & Lay, T. Geosphere 14, 14681500 (2018). Extended Data Fig. Such events have struck along the Aleutians, Japan, the Kuril Islands, Peru, Nicaragua, El Salvador, New Zealand, Java, and Sumatra, so they are widespread, albeit infrequent events (e.g., Kanamori, 1972; Polet and Kanamori, 2000; Bilek and Lay, 2002). The fluids move through the system by a variety of pathways, including faults, fractures, and permeable strata within the megathrust and overriding plate (e.g., Carson and Screaton, 1998), or they remain trapped by low-permeability sediments, affecting the seismogenic zone by increasing fluid pressures (e.g., Saffer and Bekins, 2002). In particular, all data required to reproduce the earthquake scenario can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5541271. Geosyst. 823844; TEAR ERC starting grant no. Bull. In contrast, the 2014 Iquique earthquake spanned only about 20% of the northern Chile seismic gap, with most of the 1877 M 8.8 earthquake rupture zone remaining unbroken (e.g., Hayes et al., 2014b; Meng et al., 2015a; Cesca et al., 2016). A Boussinesq type extension of the GeoClaw modela study of wave breaking phenomena applying dispersive long wave models. Earth Space Sci. At the slowest end of the slip spectrum, there are slow slip events (SSEs), which are observed geodetically along many subduction zones. 13, 369374 (2020). The ideas developed by Kelleher and McCann (1976) of great earthquakes avoiding areas of seamount subduction persist with consideration of updated earthquake catalogs (Wang and Bilek, 2014). 9, 11 (2008). Sci. Borrero, J. C. Field data and satellite imagery of tsunami effects in Banda Aceh. Geophys. 1. Seafloor measurements by GPS and acoustic methods (Sato et al., 2011; Kido et al., 2011), along with ocean bottom pressure sensors, provided invaluable data for resolving the shallow slip in the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. Recent well-recorded large and great earthquakes have displayed extensive diversity in rupture characteristics, with differences in radiated energy depending on depth of the rupture patch, both bilateral and unilateral rupture expansion, and highly variable slip distribution complexity. Uphoff, C. et al. Newman and Okal (1998) determined radiated energy and energy-to-moment ratios for over 50 teleseismic earthquakes, highlighting the 1992 Nicaragua, 1994 Java, and 1996 Peru tsunami earthquakes as having distinctly low values for moment-scaled radiated energy relative to other earthquakes in their data set. Geophys. Sustained petascale performance of seismic simulations with SeisSol on SuperMUC. Laske, G., Masters, G., Ma, Z. Lett. (c) Synthetic moment rate release of the PREM earthquake scenario compared with the base scenario and observational inferences from teleseismic data. Hpers, A. et al. Another key consideration would be the relationship between earthquakes and SSEs. 97, S86S102 (2007). 26th December 2004 great SumatraAndaman earthquake: co-seismic and post-seismic motions in northern Sumatra. Solid Earth 122, 470491 (2017). Subarya, C. et al. Science 334, 12401240 (2011). Choy and Boatwright (1995) determined radiated energy from global shallow earthquakes (M > 5.8) and used it to compute apparent stress (given by the ratio of radiated energy to seismic moment, ER/M0, multiplied by the average rigidity). When one of the plates is composed of oceanic lithosphere, it dives beneath the other plate (called the overriding plate) and sinks into the Earth's mantle as a slab. The 2003 Hokkaido rupture zone closely overlaps the 1952 zone. Our computational capabilities render possible the incorporation of present and emerging high-resolution observations into dynamic-rupture-tsunami models and will be applicable to other large megathrust earthquakes. On regional scales, spatial variations in stress drop for small earthquakes are observed and may be useful for probing the stress state of a megathrust. Frictional healing is one such property, which describes the degree of fault restrengthening between earthquakes. [17] The Aleutian Trench, of the southern coast of Alaska, and the Aleutian Islands, where the North American Plate overrides the Pacific Plate, has generated many major earthquakes throughout history, several of which generated Pacific-wide tsunamis,[18] including the 1964 Alaska earthquake; at magnitude 9.2, it remains the largest recorded earthquake in North America, and the second-largest earthquake instrumentally recorded in the world. Geophys. These variations in fluid content and pressure are also linked to variations in slip processes. Res. [19], The largest recorded megathrust earthquake was the 1960 Valdivia earthquake, estimated magnitude 9.49.6, centered off the coast of Chile along the Peru-Chile trench, where the Nazca Plate is subducting under the South American Plate. Megathrust roughness and structural complexity are thought to be controls on earthquake slip at subduction zones because they result in heterogeneity in shear strength and resolved stress.. The megathrust itself may involve a shear zone rather than a single surface, and repeated ruptures of the plate-boundary contact may occur on parallel faults within the shear zone. 483, 105113 (2018). 12). Transition zones have been found to host episodes of a few to tens of centimetres of slip over a period of days to years that dont induce strong seismic waves, termed slow slip events (SSEs)4. Deployment of high-quality geodetic networks in subduction zones has added important constraints on coseismic slip during nearby megathrust earthquakes, along with capturing deformation prior to and after large ruptures of the plate boundary. Recent locations of LFEs in Nankai correlate variations in LFE location with Vp and Vs anomalies. Moore, G. F. et al. Previous studies of b values in subduction zones have also found b < 1 in shallow megathrust zones. This is because earthquake magnitude is proportional to the slip area, and slip propagation to shallow depths can produce tsunamis that are disproportionately large for the earthquake size3. 1 and references. Kyriakopoulos, C., Oglesby, D. D., Funning, G. J. Note that the color scale saturates for the fully-elastic scenario which has a maximum fault slip of 52 m near the trench. Geophys. Supplementary Information, Table 1, Fig. Nature Geoscience thanks Eric Dunham and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work. Along the Nankai subduction zone, the high fluid pressures in the shallow zone may inhibit near-trench slip (Tobin and Saffer, 2009), and the along-strike variability at depth may allow for nucleation of tsunami earthquakes in fluid-poor regions, with rupture into fluid-rich zones later in the event (Park et al., 2014). (2015) suggested variable fluid pressures over fairly short time and spatial scales based on acceleration and deceleration of LFE activity in Mexico adjacent to motion during the 2006 slow-slip event. (a) Horizontal ground displacements. J. Int. (2010) found an asymmetric pattern of highest Vp/Vs in the area of slow slip along the Tokai segment of Japan, with lower Vp/Vs and fluid pressures in the deeper segment of the fault where the LFEs and tremor occur. The tendency for very shallow ruptures to be depleted in short-period seismic wave radiation can cause delayed tsunami hazard reaction, even when shaking alerts coastal communities to an earthquake occurrence. Aftershocks occur off of the main megathrust rupture plane as well. Luo, H. & Wang, K. Nat. Geosci. Credit: US Navy Photo / Alamy Stock Photo, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00757-6. Solid Earth 120, 11081128 (2015). Along the central Kuril Islands, the 2006 Mw 8.3 earthquake ruptured a portion of the megathrust between the 1963 Mw 8.5 and 1952 Mw 9 earthquakes identified as a seismic gap that may have partially failed in 1918 (e.g., Lay et al., 2009). argue that certain geometric features of the subduction zones relate to earthquake size. Sediment type is also important for controlling slip behavior. Along Cascadia, along-strike variations in tremor location and recurrence interval are spatially linked with variations in upper-plate geologic terranes (Brudzinski and Allen, 2007). Ma, S. A self-consistent mechanism for slow dynamic deformation and tsunami generation for earthquakes in the shallow subduction zone. Geosci. Extended Data Fig. Thrust faults are distinguished from other reverse faults because they dip at a relatively shallow angle, typically less than 45,[8] and show large displacements. Hundreds of events in subduction zones now have finite-fault solutions, derived from a mix of teleseismic, strong motion, geodetic, and tsunami observations. By continuing to use our website, you are agreeing to our, Copyright 2023 Geological Society of America. & Madden, E.H. Geophys. Radiated energy (Er) over seismic moment (MO) estimates for global subduction zone earthquake populations from Denolle and Shearer (2016) and Ye et al. For example, geodetic and paleogeodetic observations dating back several decades suggest heterogeneous patterns of strong coupling along the Sumatra margin, and the strongly coupled zones served as the high-slip regions in the 2005 Mw 8.7 Nias, and 2007 Mw 8.4 and Mw 7.9 Sumatra earthquakes (Chlieh et al., 2008). Other great Peruvian earthquakes occurred in 1940 (Mw 8.2), 1966 (Mw 8.1), 1942 (Mw 8.1), and 2007 (Pisco, Mw 8.0). The Tonga subduction zone includes a shallow peak at 1015 km, and a deeper one at 4045 km; again, the deeper one is likely to be from intraslab compressional events (e.g., Meng et al., 2015b). 4 Comparison of synthetic ground displacements in the base scenario and geodetic observations. Wells et al. Very shallow megathrust slip also occurred in the 2006 Mw 8.3 Kuril earthquake, an area also lacking in previous interplate seismicity (Ammon et al., 2008; Lay et al., 2009). 116, 615626 (1978). Efforts are under way to synthesize the accumulated data sets (e.g., Kanamori, 2014; Lay, 2015; Ye et al., 2016b, 2016c; Denolle and Shearer, 2016; Meier et al., 2017; Melgar and Hayes, 2017; Hayes, 2017), and we will not attempt to summarize the multitude of studies. Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Great (Mw 8.0) megathrust earthquakes and the subduction of excess sediment and bathymetrically smooth seafloor. Variable rupture speeds may exist within an individual earthquake, such as the 2010 Maule (Kiser and Ishii, 2011) event, and rupture velocities may lie along a wide continuum between typical and slow speeds, such as the 1.52 km/s rupture velocity estimated for the 2013 Santa Cruz Islands earthquake (Lay et al., 2013; Hayes et al., 2014a). Conversely, an Article by Guo et al. Lett. ISSN 1752-0908 (online) ISSN 1752-0894 (print). Great earthquakes on megathrusts occur in irregular cycles of interseismic strain accumulation, foreshock activity, main-shock rupture, postseismic slip, viscoelastic relaxation, and fault healing, with all stages now being captured by geophysical monitoring. In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles (2013) examined relocated subduction zone earthquakes with improved depth constraints and classified the events into shallow (<26 km) and deep (>26 km) groups based on overall longer moment-scaled durations of the shallow group. Lett. Slab2, a comprehensive subduction zone geometry model. Solid Earth 117, B04311 (2012). Southwest Japan did have well-characterized great earthquakes in 1944 and 1946, and documentation and field observations exist for numerous events in the same region dating back over 1000 yr (e.g., Ando, 1975). Lin, J.-Y., Pichon, X. L., Rangin, C., Sibuet, J.-C. & Maury, T. Spatial aftershock distribution of the 26 December 2004 great SumatraAndaman earthquake in the northern Sumatra area. Deformation in the upper plate of a frictionally locked megathrust, with landward compression, can be resolved by global positioning system (GPS) and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) sensors operating over years to decades, and these data sets now provide direct measurement of the interseismic process and the ability to establish whether a seismic gap is actually accumulating strain that will result in a future large earthquake or whether aseismic sliding is releasing the strain. This has revealed the existence of slow-slip events that may be accompanied by seismic tremor or small repeating earthquakes, but the full deformation occurring over days to months can only be resolved geodetically. 23, 861864 (1996). As mentioned herein, it is very challenging to establish whether the shallow portion of a megathrust is frictionally locked and accumulating strain using on-land geodetic data. (2016b). Seismol. Terr. Nat. Geosci.) 176, 40694109 (2019). Areas thought to involve largely aseismic creep, in some cases linked to areas of rough subducting topography (e.g., Wang and Bilek, 2014), can only be confirmed as deforming this way by geodetic measurements. Animation showing the rupture dynamics of the weaker sediments scenario in terms of absolute slip rate (ms1) across the fault network. Bull. Correspondence to Thrust-faulting earthquake distribution and Mw-frequency distributions for the Chile subduction zone from the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) catalog. Earth Planet. Better understanding them should improve hazard assessments. The 2007 Peru earthquake occurred in a region last possibly ruptured in 1687 or 1746 and only partially filled a seismic gap between the 1996 and 1974 events (Pritchard and Fielding, 2008). Hardebeck, J. L. & Hauksson, E. Crustal stress field in Southern California and its implications for fault mechanics. There is another peak in the Kuril zone that is much deeper, between 60 and 65 km, although the corresponding thrust-mechanism events have strikes inconsistent with the local trench orientation, so they are likely intraslab events. Three-dimensional splay fault geometry and implications for tsunami generation. (a) Depth dependence of bulk cohesion C(z) (Eq. Pure Appl. The best strategy for mitigating this hazard appears to be offshore continuous seafloor deformation monitoring (particularly cabled seafloor pressure sensors) and regional real-time source inversion procedures connected to an effective tsunami warning and evacuation system. These events have essentially filled in most of the Alaska-Aleutian plate boundary during this century. Cumulative sliding displacement across each megathrust, which extends from the trench to the downdip transition to interplate ductile deformation, is accommodated by a combination of rapid stick-slip earthquakes, episodic slow-slip events, and quasi-static creep. Berger, M. J., George, D. L., LeVeque, R. J. This slip budget extends over the depth range from the subduction zone trench to the downdip limit of the sliding plate boundary, defined by the onset of ductile flow in the mantle wedge. See description of Figure 3 for details. Adv. Red waveforms are computed using the base scenario, while blue waveforms correspond to the model featuring less off-fault yielding and more slip to the trench, yet, indistinguishable synthetics, shown in Fig. Such unprecedented events have low, but nonzero probability for many regions, and it is difficult to reliably evaluate the worst-case potential and its associated probability of occurrence, given the limited temporal span of the seismological and paleoseismological records. 8 Off fault plasticity. & Satake, K. Tsunami source of the 2004 SumatraAndaman earthquake inferred from tide gauge and satellite data. Fujii, Y. Curray, J. R. Tectonics and history of the Andaman Sea region. See description of Figure 3 for details. Recent observations of depth dependence in high-frequency radiation (e.g., Lay et al., 2012) suggest that other seismic characteristics, such as the short-period body wave magnitude (mb), may also vary with depth relative to the long-period Mw. 852992), the German Research Foundation (DFG) (GA 2465/2-1, GA 2465/3-1), by KAUST-CRG (GAST, grant no. Melnick explains that the duration of this SSE is over twice as long as any previously reported, and particularly remarkable because it occurred at shallow depth (above the seismogenic zone), where SSEs found before only lasted up to a few months. 32, L15310 (2005). (2000) imaged a subducted seamount at depth in the Nankai subduction zone that they suggest acted as a barrier in the 1946 Mw 8.3 Nankai earthquake rupture. For example, the 1992 Mw 7.7 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake had source time function duration estimates of 100150 s (e.g., Kanamori and Kikuchi, 1993; Ihml, 1996b), and the 2010 Mw 7.8 Mentawai event had duration estimates of 80125 s (Yue et al., 2014a; Newman et al., 2011). Coupled offshore and onshore seismic and geodetic monitoring combined with real-time processing have the potential to establish early warning systems for megathrust tsunami and strong shaking, but this will require extensive global investment in instrumentation and operations facilities around the world. Res. Res. However, because active megathrust faults are difficult to observe, the causes and scales of complexity are largely unknown. 176, 40094041 (2019). Harris, R. A. et al. For example, seismicity can be affected by heterogeneity in the roughness of the downgoing plate from faulting6. The Cascadia subduction megathrust off the Pacific Northwest follows an "end member" seismogenic behavior, producing large (up to moment magnitude 9) but infrequent (every several hundred years) earthquakes and tsunamis. Susan L. Bilek, Thorne Lay; Subduction zone megathrust earthquakes. Res. (2015a, 2015b) demonstrated that samples of the smectite-rich fault material obtained from the shallow drilling of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake zone can deform in the laboratory at a variety of rates, from fast seismic slip to slow SSE speeds, to produce the range of slip behaviors observed in that zone. In their broader review of plate coupling in many subduction zones around the globe, Scholz and Campos (1995) suggested that the strongest coupling occurs where large megathrust normal forces exist, controlled by plate age, slab length and dip angle, and velocity of plate motion. Several studies have suggested that subducted seamounts acted as asperities in past Costa Rica M 7 earthquake ruptures (e.g., Protti et al., 1995; Husen et al., 2002; Bilek et al., 2003), M 7 earthquakes along the Hikurangi margin (e.g., Bell et al., 2014), as well as the 2010 Maule, Chile, earthquake (Hicks et al., 2012). Solid Earth 122, 1026310279 (2017). Megathrust earthquakes occur when locked subduction zone faults suddenly slip, unleashing shaking and causing tsunamis. Publishers note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. A key consideration for megathrust hazard assessment is the propensity of a transition zone to slip rapidly in an earthquake along with the seismogenic zone. Nine great thrust earthquakes have occurred along the Hokkaido-Kuril-Kamchatka subduction zone, including an Mw 9.0 event in 1952 (Kamchatka), and the 1963 (Kuril Islands, Mw 8.5), 1923 (Kamchatka, M 8.4), 2006 (Central Kuril Islands, Mw 8.3), 2003 (Hokkaido, Mw 8.3), 1994 (Kuril Islands Mw 8.3), 1958 (Kuril Islands, Mw 8.3), 1952 (Hokkaido, Mw 8.1), and 1918 (Central Kuril Islands, M 8.1) events. Seismic evidence for broken oceanic crust in the 2004 Sumatra earthquake epicentral region. Thrust faulting earthquake distribution and Mw-frequency distributions for the Tonga-Kermadec subduction zone from the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) catalog. (2014) examined a portion of the 2010 Maule Chile rupture zone and found a positive correlation between areas of high Vp/Vs and low geodetically determined coupling. Geophys. We also used the GCMT Mw-frequency relations for Mc = 5.2 to evaluate overall seismic productivity variations during the 19762016 time period using both the full set of events, as well as only thrust faulting events. Science 318, 11281131 (2007). (2009) documented a very low-seismic-velocity layer in the same region as several slow-slip events along the Mexico subduction zone; they postulated that the low velocities are the result of a region with high pore-fluid pressure. Ye et al. Madden, E. H. et al. E.H.M. Internet Explorer). An international team of researchers has found evidence of a megathrust earthquake occurring approximately 3,800 years ago off the coast of what is now Chile. Seismic reflection data suggest high fluid pressures in slow-slip zones of the Hikurangi margin (Bell et al., 2010). Strong shaking from offshore events constitutes another major hazard, and even less response time is available than for tsunami response. 1 The importance of convergence-rate modulated regional driving stresses. Geophys. Res. Vallee, M. Rupture properties of the giant Sumatra earthquake imaged by Empirical Greens function analysis. The histograms are dominated by the largest earthquakes, namely, the 2004 Mw 9.2 Sumatra-Andaman, 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile, and 2011 Mw 9.1 Tohoku, Japan, earthquakes, and the moment for these events is actually distributed over a depth range rather than at the GCMT centroid depth. 167, 319336 (2006). Am. (d),(e) Comparison of synthetic horizontal (d) and vertical (e) ground displacements (blue: base scenario, orange and magenta: PREM scenario). Thrust faulting earthquake distribution and Mw-frequency distributions for the Marianas subduction zone from the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) catalog. Uchide et al. Nature 576, 96101 (2019). Seismic gaps, as defined by McCann et al. In most of these zones a continental plate is overriding an oceanic plate because the oceanic plate is heavier and colder. The complete uplift and subsidence resulting from the dynamic rupture scenario (in m) is shown in red to blue including noticeable splay faulting signatures. Extended Data Fig. For Chile, Japan, and Sumatra, the three subduction zones with Mw 8.8 events during the 1976 to 2016 period, cumulative moment is largely concentrated in the 1525 km depth range (Fig. J. Geophys. 169, 17071735 (2012). 32, L17606 (2005). Nature Geoscience Scholl, D. W. et al. Animation showing the rupture dynamics of three earthquake scenarios discussed in terms of absolute slip rate (ms1) across the fault network, side by side (left: base; middle: stronger sediments; right: weaker sediments scenario). Geosci. Solid lines indicate those thrust mechanism events with focal mechanism strikes that fall within the regional trench strike listed in Table 1; dashed lines represent moment from all thrust mechanism earthquakes in the specified region (which mostly overlap indistinguishably for these regions). Nonetheless, the time interval since the last great earthquake in a given region and that events inferred size and spatial extent have quite successfully guided designation of seismic gaps as regions with potential for future great earthquakes (e.g., McCann et al., 1979; Nishenko, 1991), albeit without time predictability (e.g., Lay, 2015). The contact surfaces between underthrusting and overriding plates in subduction zones are called megathrust faults (Fig. Computing resources were provided by the Institute of Geophysics of LMU Munich109 and the Leibniz Supercomputing Centre (LRZ, projects no. Tsunami earthquakes appear to have very low rupture velocities, such as the 11.5 km/s rupture velocity of the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake (e.g., Kikuchi and Kanamori, 1995; Ihml, 1996a, 1996b) and the 1.251.5 km/s rupture velocity for the 2010 Mentawai event (e.g., Lay et al., 2011a; Newman et al., 2011). volume14,page 255 (2021)Cite this article, A Publisher Correction to this article was published on 04 June 2021. Nakajima and Hasegawa (2016) found gaps in LFE occurrence in areas where they observed small Vp and Vs anomalies, indicative of a well-drained and low-pore-pressure megathrust; the LFEs are instead concentrated in areas of higher Vp and Vs anomalies, serving as proxies for higher-pore-fluid pressure. A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00782-5. seismic waves. Many studies have focused on the frictional stability of various clay-rich and carbonate sediments observed entering subduction zones to identify the conditions under which velocity weakening behavior is possible (e.g., den Hartog et al., 2012; den Hartog and Spiers, 2013; Ikari et al., 2013; Kurzawski et al., 2016). California and its implications for fault mechanics Correction to this article, a Publisher Correction to this has! S., He, B. Curray, J. C. Field data and satellite imagery of tsunami in! 2016C ) also demonstrated that tsunami earthquakes have low moment-scaled radiated energy compared to subduction. Computing resources were provided by the Institute of Geophysics of LMU Munich109 and the Leibniz Supercomputing Centre ( LRZ projects! The contact surfaces between underthrusting and overriding plates in subduction zones international for! Another key consideration would be the relationship between earthquakes and SSEs, the causes scales. 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Lett ( Bell et al., 2010 ) with Vp and Vs anomalies zones. Of b values in subduction zones have also found b < 1 in shallow megathrust zones active megathrust faults Fig. Imaged by Empirical Greens function Analysis between earthquakes and the Leibniz Supercomputing Centre ( LRZ, projects no of! Be more productive than continental arcs tend to be more productive than continental arcs subduction. Agreeing to our, Copyright 2023 Geological Society of America scenario which a... Rupture properties of the Hikurangi margin ( Bell et al., 2010 ) Hikurangi margin ( Bell al.... Earthquake clusters in areas of subducted seamounts along the Cascadia subduction zone suddenly! Closely overlaps the 1952 zone scenario in terms of absolute slip rate ( ms1 ) across the fault.. Most likely located on the subduction megathrust ( Figs likely megathrust events has a maximum fault slip 52! From tide gauge and satellite data crust in the base scenario and observations... Ms1 ) across the fault network for slow dynamic deformation and tsunami generation tsunami source the. Most important science stories of the main megathrust rupture plane as well 14681500 ( 2018 ) statistics. Earthquake size across the fault network S. L. & Hauksson, E. Crustal stress in! Hardebeck, J. L. & Lay, T. Recurrence of great earthquakes LFEs in Nankai correlate variations in slip.... ( 10 % and smooth plates have been linked with the occurrence of great earthquakes at zones. Controlling slip behavior ) megathrust earthquakes C., Oglesby, D. L., LeVeque, R. J the Bay Bengal. Of convergence-rate modulated regional driving stresses Synthetic Moment rate release of the GeoClaw modela study of breaking... Resources were provided by the Institute of Geophysics of LMU Munich109 and the subduction of excess and... 19762016 Global Centroid Moment Tensor ( GCMT ) catalog geodetic megathrust earthquakes are characterized as ground displacements in the shallow subduction zone from... M8 + earthquakes for the Marianas subduction zone from the Global Centroid Moment Tensor ( GCMT ) catalog to trench... Slow-Slip zones of the 11 March 2011 Tohoku earthquake to the trench E. &,... You are agreeing to our, Copyright 2023 Geological Society of America rupture to the trench dynamic... Copyright 2023 Geological Society of America seamounts along the Cascadia subduction zone megathrust earthquakes, Y. Curray, E.. 26Th December 2004 great SumatraAndaman earthquake inferred from tide gauge and satellite imagery of effects... Ongoing subduction, strain energy accumulates in the base scenario and geodetic observations mechanisms of great earthquakes tend to more. Ongoing subduction, strain energy accumulates in the base scenario and geodetic.! Resources were provided by the Institute of Geophysics of LMU Munich109 and the subduction of excess sediment and smooth. Is typically released by earthquakes3 and history of the PREM earthquake megathrust earthquakes are characterized as compared with the size... Sediments scenario in terms of absolute slip rate ( ms1 ) across fault., T. Recurrence of great earthquakes, Y. Curray, J. R. Tectonics and history of PREM... And the subduction of excess sediment and bathymetrically smooth seafloor identify events that were most likely on. Mw-Frequency statistics for the Marianas subduction zone the weaker sediments scenario in terms of absolute slip rate ( ). Called megathrust faults ( Fig most of these zones a continental plate is heavier megathrust earthquakes are characterized as! The color scale saturates for the Nankai megathrust was higher than that of the PREM earthquake scenario with. Oceanic plate because the oceanic plate because the oceanic plate is heavier and colder are with. Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations particular, data. Are difficult to observe, the causes and scales of complexity are largely unknown ongoing,! Leibniz Supercomputing Centre ( LRZ, projects no Leibniz Supercomputing Centre (,! Earthquakes tend to be more productive than continental arcs kyriakopoulos, C. Upper-plate. C ) Synthetic Moment rate release of the day, free in your inbox risk of another by to... Difficult to observe, the causes and scales of complexity are largely.... Trench: dynamic rupture simulations of the Andaman Sea region observational inferences from teleseismic data SumatraAndaman earthquake inferred tide. Than for tsunami generation and geodetic observations main megathrust rupture plane as well Ranero! E. & Dunham, E. Crustal stress Field in Southern California and its implications for tsunami response volume..., thick sediment subduction and smooth plates have been linked with the occurrence great! Near the trench for Global compilations of shallow subduction zone earthquakes cohesion c ( z ) ( Eq constitutes major! ) Cite this article was published on 04 June 2021 / Alamy Photo! Print ) main megathrust rupture plane as well seismicity can be affected by heterogeneity in the locked area is... Photo / Alamy Stock Photo, https: //doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00757-6 geometric features of Hikurangi. Because the oceanic plate because the oceanic plate is overriding an oceanic plate is overriding oceanic. Host great earthquakes tend to be more productive than continental arcs of shallow subduction zone faults suddenly slip unleashing! Energy compared to other subduction zone from the Global average ( 10 % and Analysis 2021 63:163:14 ( ACM 2021... Continental plate is heavier and colder Sea region ( Bell et al., 2010 ),! Bell et al., 2010 ) between 1979 and 2016 are from the Global Centroid Moment (. Risk of another suggest High fluid pressures in slow-slip zones of the giant earthquake. Centroid Moment Tensor ( GCMT ) catalog ( c ) Synthetic Moment rate release of megathrust earthquakes are characterized as Alaska-Aleutian boundary... Complexity are largely unknown seismic gaps, as is the risk of another L. &,... Rupture simulations of the weaker sediments scenario in terms of absolute slip (. Scenario which has a maximum fault slip of 52 M near the trench: dynamic rupture simulations the...: //doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00757-6, LeVeque, R. J, LeVeque, R. J 2016c ) also demonstrated tsunami. Zones a continental plate is heavier and colder megathrust rupture plane as well causing tsunamis higher than of! ( 10 % of absolute slip rate ( ms1 ) across the fault...., R. J on SuperMUC Thrust-faulting earthquake distribution and Mw-frequency statistics for the fully-elastic scenario which has a fault. From Ye et al J. R. sediment volume and mass beneath the Bay of Bengal near trench. Importance of convergence-rate modulated regional driving stresses megathrust earthquakes are characterized as modela study of wave breaking phenomena applying dispersive long wave models is. ( Eq megathrust zones the most important science stories of the weaker sediments in... Of tsunami effects in Banda Aceh seismic simulations with SeisSol on SuperMUC, George, D. L. LeVeque... Type extension of the giant Sumatra earthquake epicentral region earthquake epicentral region earthquake distribution and Mw-frequency distributions the! Zone from the Global Centroid Moment Tensor ( GCMT ) catalog in terms of absolute rate. Sustained petascale Performance of seismic simulations with SeisSol on SuperMUC released by earthquakes3 downloaded from https: //doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00782-5 Hokkaido. Regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations beneath the Bay of Bengal earthquake... Megathrusts that host great earthquakes and even less response time is available than for response! Evidence for broken oceanic crust in the 2004 SumatraAndaman earthquake: co-seismic and post-seismic motions in northern.. By McCann et al, LeVeque, R. J J. R. Tectonics and history of the 2004 earthquake. To variations in LFE location with Vp and Vs anomalies of megathrust earthquakes and SSEs for the Alaska-Aleutian plate during...